He’s a misfortune teller.
J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Cembalest predicted to investors that President Joe Biden will drop out out of the 2024 race due to concerns over his well-being.
In an “Eye on the Market” newsletter for clients on Jan. 1, Cembalest ventured beyond finance in his “top 10 surprises” for 2024. He forecasted the incumbent’s retreat from the political scene in perhaps the very near future.
“President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons,” Cembalest wrote. “Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”
The investing wonk cited Biden’s low approval rating despite an approximately 10% job creation bump during his administration. But Cembalest wrote off the increase as a byproduct of the vaccine rollout and “reopening” of the American economy.
Biden trails GOP front-runner Donald Trump in several polls as concerns about the incumbent’s age percolate and the former president continues to stoke loyalists’ resentment over his indictments and state efforts to delete him from ballots.
Cembalest, the chair of market investment and strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, also saw a stable dollar in his crystal ball, along with a comeuppance for driverless cars.
Cembalest intended the list as a one-time homage to the late Wall Streeter Byron Wien, who published bold predictions for decades and died last year at age 90. But several outlets picked up on Cembalest’s election soothsaying.
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